The promises and pitfalls of freer trade for California agriculture will be the focus of a Jan. 13 conference in Sacramento examining the impact of the 12-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The conference, sponsored by the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics at the University of California, will be held in the Sacramento Hilton.

"As NAFTA transitions into teen status, we'll be asking whether the agreement is passing into maturity or the beginning of a troublesome period in the drive for freer trade," said Philip Martin, a professor of agricultural economics at UC Davis and the conference coordinator.

NAFTA was signed Jan. 1, 1994, by the United States, Canada and Mexico in an attempt to remove most barriers to trade and investment among the three nations. Under the agreement, all non-tariff barriers to agricultural trade between the member countries were eliminated. In addition, many tariffs were removed immediately, with others being phased out over five to 15 years.

Martin says that the traditionally staunch support for free trade by the U.S. and California agriculture may be weakening. He points out that NAFTA cleared the 435-seat House of Representatives by a margin of 34 votes; in contrast, the Central-American Free Trade Agreement was approved this summer by only two votes.

"During the conference, we'll be examining NAFTA's effectiveness in expanding trade in farm commodities between Canada, Mexico and the United States," Martin said. "We'll also be looking at some of the remaining barriers to trade in farm commodities, including Canadian wheat and cattle, and Mexican tomatoes, avocados and sugar."

He notes that some of the most significant effects of NAFTA have been in the Mexican countryside, which is experiencing a great migration to urban Mexico, as well as to Canada and the United States. The agreement freed up trade in agricultural commodities such as corn, displacing some small Mexican corn farmers who, as a result, have migrated to the United States.

The conference will run from 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., featuring three panels of experts. Keynote speakers will be Jason Hafemeister of the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, speaking on what agriculture can expect to develop from the World Trade Organization's 2001 Fourth Ministerial Conference in Doha, Qatar, and Sacramento Bee political columnist Dan Walters, discussing California in the 21st Century.

Panelists will include faculty members from UC Davis and UC Berkeley. Speakers from UC Davis' departments of Economics and Agricultural and Resource Economics will be Philip Martin, Rob Feenstra, Roberta Cook, Colin Carter and Ed Taylor.

A complete conference agenda is available online at http://giannini.ucop.edu/NAFTA_Agenda.htm.

The Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics supports research and outreach activities in agricultural economics and rural development relevant to California. It was established in 1930 from a grant made to the University of California by the Bancitaly Corporation in honor of its founder, Amadeo Peter Giannini. The foundation includes UC faculty members and Cooperative Extension specialists in agricultural and resource economics on the Davis, Berkeley and Riverside campuses.