The population of California's Central Valley is expected to balloon from 7 million to 12 million people in the next 30 years, making it the fastest growing region anywhere in the U.S. or Mexico. Can the valley's communities be that big and green as well?

"I am actually pretty pessimistic about the possibility," says the lead author of a new UC Davis review of 100 Central Valley cities' growth policies.

"Sustainable growth is growth that minimizes environmental impact while meeting goals for economic viability and quality of life, for both present and future generations," said associate professor Mark Lubell. "Our study identified some very serious obstacles to achieving the goal, but also identifies some variables and recommendations that might help."

Lubell found that the valley's biggest cities have the greatest number of sustainable-growth policies and projects.

Fresno had the highest score on the Sustainability Index, at 33 points (out of 50). Sacramento followed with 31.5 and Davis was third, at 30. The lowest score, for the fewest policies, went to Maricopa, at 5.5.

"Bigger cities have a lot of problems, but they also have lots of policies in place," Lubell said. "That is a good example of the challenges — a community might try really hard but the policies may still fail in the end."

Fresno's high score on the Sustainability Index was due to two Fresno initiatives -- “Fresno Green,” an action-oriented plan intended to transform Fresno into a sustainable city, and the "Southeast Growth Area" (SEGA), a 14-square-mile area targeted to absorb at least 20 percent of Fresno’s growth over the next 20 years in a high-density, multi-use development incorporating "new types of open space and walkable communities."

The researchers also wrote case studies of seven Central Valley cities (Fresno, Modesto, Davis, Wheatland, Lincoln, Sacramento and Citrus Heights), which inform their advice for building sustainable communities, including:

• Stop relying on big-box stores and sprawl for city revenues -- even if it means revisiting Proposition 13. Dependence on sales tax from retail, and user fees on new development, is called "the fiscalization of land use," and it discourages policies that restrict growth or encourage high-density and in-fill development. These financial issues are particularly acute in California because of Proposition 13, passed in 1978, which reduced the availability of property taxes and caused many cities to view growth as the only way to balance budgets.

• Don't wait until too late. State policies should put a high priority on "transitioning cities" -- those that don't have a history of poor development but are now growing fast and making irrevocable decisions about their future.

• Focus city general-plan updates on sustainability from the start. The vision should encompass environmental, economic and social issues.

• Establish a city sustainability program with a dedicated budget and staff. This program should evaluate priority problems for the city and seek the most cost-effective solutions, with input from city departments, city officials and citizens.

• Keep learning. Help city staff benefit from others' experiences through conferences, training and online peer networks. Spread knowledge through community meetings. City officials should give citizens opportunities to be heard, and should respond publicly. State agencies and university research programs should help cities discover which sustainability efforts will provide the greatest return on investment.

The report, "Achieving Sustainability in California’s Central Valley," was written by researchers in the UC Davis Sustainable Transportation Center, a program of the Institute of Transportation Studies. All are members of the Department of Environmental Science and Policy: Lubell; Bret Beheim and Vicken Hillis, research assistants; and professor Susan Handy, also the center's director.

The Sustainable Transportation Center is funded in part by the U.S. Department of Transportation and Caltrans, the California Department of Transportation, through the University Transportation Centers program. Additional funding for this study came from the National Science Foundation.

The executive summary and full research report are available online at: http://pubs.its.ucdavis.edu/publication_detail.php?id=1286.

About UC Davis

For 100 years, UC Davis has engaged in teaching, research and public service that matter to California and transform the world. Located close to the state capital, UC Davis has 31,000 students, an annual research budget that exceeds $500 million, a comprehensive health system and 13 specialized research centers. The university offers interdisciplinary graduate study and more than 100 undergraduate majors in four colleges -- Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Biological Sciences, Engineering, and Letters and Science -- and advanced degrees from six professional schools -- Education, Law, Management, Medicine, Veterinary Medicine and the Betty Irene Moore School of Nursing.