Unitrans could be operating in the red in a few years if funding - from the university, students, the city and grants - does not keep up with projected demand for transit service.

The Unitrans Short-Range Transit Plan, released May 28 as part of a campus Transportation and Parking Services progress report, indicates that by the 2005-06 school year, the bus system could face a $93,161 deficit.

The projections come as Unitrans is setting a record for ridership. By the end of June, riders will have taken more than 2.7 million bus trips in the 2001-02 school year, based on current projections. Last year, riders - mostly students, but also UC Davis employees as well as city residents - took just under 2.5 million trips.

But Unitrans' funding isn't keeping up with the construction, maintenance and new equipment needs necessary to meet the growing demand, said Unitrans General Manager Jim McElroy.

So far, he isn't panicking.

Likely, he and his staff will sit down with Unitrans' city and university advisory board and a taskforce of student and campus leaders to brainstorm how to maintain service under the constraints. The possible deficit situation is one not uncommon to heavily used bus systems like Unitrans, McElroy said.

"I feel like I have the lead time, and my history tells me that this can be an exciting time that leads to exciting outcomes," said McElroy, who has worked for Unitrans for 23 years.

Currently, all undergraduates pay $24.50 a quarter to the university to help the Associated Students of UC Davis pay for bus service. Unitrans also receives about $1 million annually in federal funds, funneled through the city of Davis; $500,000 in city sales tax revenue; as well as air quality and regional planning agency monies.

"In all of these pots, we are competing with a variety of needs," McElroy said.

ASUCD may also explore holding a referendum on whether the university should increase Unitrans fees passed in 1999.

"We see (a fee increase) as an investment to the campus because it would provide a very valuable service," controller Mike Lagrama said.

In the next year he said the organization may poll students or hold discussion groups to learn how students would feel about raising fees.

The city certainly encourages public transit use, said Sue Gedestad, assistant to the public works director, but in order for it to contribute more to Unitrans' coffers, it would need City Council approval,

"They would need to look at the various options for UC Davis," she said.

In the meantime, Unitrans' projected $2.8 million budget for next year should allow for purchasing three new compressed natural gas buses, each costing about $333,000, to replace three diesel vehicles. In all, between nine and 15 buses from the current fleet of 44 may be added through 2006.

Over the next few years, Unitrans also hopes to, according to its short-range plan:

• Provide bus service between the Health Sciences area and the campus core;
• Expand the Unitrans maintenance facility near Garrod Drive and LaRue Road to accommodate more buses; and
• Offer more frequent service to south Davis and service to the Wildhorse area of northeast Davis.

The transit plan, the first of its kind for Unitrans, also includes other options suggested through community input, such as running smaller "neighborhood shuttles" around town. The shuttles could run during times of low student demand. Or, they could attract other local residents - such as seniors - to ride by offering a flexible schedule, according to the report. Another alternative is having some buses on more popular routes run in a rapid transit style, with traffic signal priority and other timesaving techniques.

These offerings would be too expensive to implement given Unitrans' current situation, but McElroy thought they were important suggestions to include in the plan. "We wanted to look at concepts that the public requests, and at least be out there with a trial balloon," McElroy said.

The complete short-range Unitrans plans are online at www.taps.ucdavis.edu/LRPMASTR.htm.