A new UC Davis analysis of two transportation propositions on the Nov. 7 California ballot finds they have "serious shortcomings that call into question how effective they will be at alleviating the problems they purport to solve."

The measures are Proposition 1B, authorizing the sale of $19.9 billion in bonds to finance transportation projects, and Proposition 1A, amending the state constitution to limit the ability of the Legislature and governor to spend transportation funding on non-transportation programs.

The analysis was performed by UC Davis transportation technology and policy graduate students Reno Giordano and Julia Silvis. They write that the propositions could flounder because they do not remove the "primary pitfalls" to transportation funding in California: boom-or-bust funding, unstable funding and the use of categorical accounts, or "earmarks."

After exploring these obstacles in detail, the transportation analysts suggest ways the measures could be administered effectively.

Among other things, the analysts recommend that state transportation planners develop consistent and compatible guidelines for selecting projects for all three programs in highway improvement and capacity expansion. These include the Corridor Mobility Improvement Account ($4.5 billion), Trade Corridors Improvement Fund ($2 billion), and State Local Partnership Program ($1 billion). Specific recommendations are presented for each program.

Engineering professor Deb Niemeier, director of the John Muir Institute of the Environment, is the graduate students' faculty adviser.

"This analysis shows that if these measures pass," Niemeier said, "the way they are interpreted and administered will make the difference between $20 billion well-spent on essential upgrades or $20 billion squandered."

The John Muir Institute of the Environment encourages and supports UC Davis scholars seeking solutions to California's environmental problems. Giordano and Silvis are on one of seven teams of faculty, staff and students that received funding this year from the institute's Infrastructure Policy Papers Grant Program.

The transportation-measures analysis, entitled "California's Propositions 1A and 1B: Adapting the Results to the Current Landscape of Transportation Finance," is available online at http://johnmuir.ucdavis.edu/academics/funding/pdf/Prop1A1B.pdf.