The political battle of wills in Egypt will shape the Middle East for decades to come, UC Davis faculty experts believe. But no one knows for sure what will emerge next.

With each day bringing new developments in the massive protests for democracy, hundreds of students, staff and faculty turned out Feb. 8 for two faculty discussions on the volatile situation. One scholar witnessed the crisis close up — and a bit too personal.

Noha Radwan, an assistant professor of comparative literature, recently traveled to her native land for a family emergency. While in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Feb. 2, a mob attacked her, beating her on the head, just minutes after she had just finished an interview with the U.S. television-radio program Democracy Now! More than 300 people have died and thousands more have been injured among the millions of protesters and counterprotesters.

“I was saved by a person (soldier) standing on top of a tank,” she said. “I yelled, ‘Help!’ and at first he didn’t do anything.” After it looked like Radwan might be killed, the soldier intervened and pulled her into safety inside a tank.

“He told me not to tell anyone (about helping).” She suffered minor injuries and needed a couple of stitches to her head.

Safely back on campus, Radwan spoke at one of the Feb. 8 programs, a teach-in titled “What’s Going on in Egypt and the Arab World?” A standing-room-only audience crowded into the Technocultural Studies Building for the wide-ranging discussion with Radwan and other faculty members.

Susan Miller, associate professor of history and a specialist on North African, Jewish Mediterranean history, described the Middle East uprisings as a possible turning point for that part of the world.

“These events of the last four weeks are the most exciting in my career,” she said, referring to the mass demonstrations that have rocked governments in Tunisia, Yemen and other countries, in addition to Egypt.

Miller said Egypt’s poverty, high employment, government corruption and youthful interest in technology sparked the uprising and gave it momentum. Above all, it is about opportunity and freedom. When recent college graduates in Egypt cannot find jobs — unless they have “connections” to the powers that be — the regime loses legitimacy, she said.

“Democracy has to come from the people,” she said.

Miller said she expects future uprisings throughout the region, including in Libya where leader Muammar Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi is “extremely hated by his people.”

Political revolutions: ‘Volcanoes’

Zeev Maoz, a political scientist who has studied the implications of regime change in the Middle East, said that if genuine democracy actually spreads throughout the region, it would be good for the world and the U.S. But that is unpredictable.

Political revolutions are like volcanoes, he said. One knows where it may erupt, but often not how, and the pressure is invisible. It takes a small crack for a volcano to erupt, said Maoz, who spoke at the other Feb. 8 program, a forum titled “Middle East Turmoil: The People’s Turn?” It drew an overflow crowd to 1100 Social Sciences and Humanities Building.

Maoz warned that some revolutions begin with great democratic intentions, but get hijacked by nefarious elements. Examples include the French Revolution, the Bolshevik Revolution and the Iranian Revolution, which led to repression and the deaths of millions of people.

As Radwan put it: “Egyptians feel humiliated. They don’t want to feel humiliated anymore. This is about a return to Egyptian dignity.”

She added: “If this movement is crushed, Egyptians may actually find themselves between a rock and a very hard place. I don't consider myself a fundamentalist, but this would be a difficult choice for me to make.”

The haunting case of the 1979 Iranian Revolution should not be applied to Egypt in 2011, Radwan said. “Everyone is aware of the possibility of the hijacking of the revolution and is working very solidly against it.”

Omnia El Shakry, assistant professor of history and a native of Egypt, said she believes the movement in her country is broad-based and includes people from all walks of life — peasants, young people, business people. The challenge for all involved is to build the type of society that can nurture a true democracy.

“It isn’t just about removing (President Hosni) Mubarak from power, but about removing the entire state apparatus that kept him in power,” El Shakry said at the teach-in, co-sponsored by the Middle East-South Asia Studies Program and Technocultural Studies Program.

As she detailed it, Egyptians have lived under emergency law for more than 30 years, enduring the lack of free speech and free assembly, the absence of the rule of law, fair elections, and other institutional elements key to democracies. Mere incremental changes will not satisfy the people — rather, legitimate democratic mechanisms and traditions must emerge.

“Reform is not enough,” El Shakry said.

The problem, she acknowledged, is that the state security system is “massive” and pervasive, numbering by her count about 1.7 million people in Egypt, out of a population of 79 million. “Most of us know when we see one (a secret policeman or government thug).”

One key is the position of the Egyptian military, El Shakry said. “They’re sitting on the fence now, just waiting to see how things will go.”

But Egypt cannot just depend on the military to rule. Her fellow Egyptians, she added, “want a civil government, not a military coup, and a new constitution.”

Keith David Watenpaugh, an associate professor of religious studies who studies modern Islam, human rights and peace, highlighted the role of technology in organizing the Egyptian protestors at the outset.

"Google's North Africa representative, Wael Ghonim created a Facebook page that had drawn attention to egregious abuse by the police,” he said, describing an incident in which a young man died at the hands of the police. “That murder galvanized the young people."

Watenpaugh said the Tahrir Square Revolution is in large part "a uprising against a regime that violates human rights of its own people, day in and day out."

Concerns for Israel’s security, U.S.

Egypt has a signed peace treaty with neighboring Israel that has kept the peace between the countries for more than 30 years. The two nations engaged in military conflict several times prior to 1978's Camp David Accords, which made Egypt the first Arab country to officially recognize the existence of Israel. As part of the agreement, the United States began economic and military aid to Egypt, and political backing for its subsequent governments.

Miroslav Nincic, a political science professor and expert on United States foreign policy, said an Egypt without Mubarak — a key American ally — may have quite a different outlook on Israel as well America.

The youth-driven revolution is more concerned with values of nationalism, and that will be harder on Israel than Mubarak was, Nincic said. One has to live with the consequences of democracy, like Hamas, he said.

What should the United States do in regard to Egypt? Nincic said American policymakers have few choices at this point, and that the outcome rests in the hands of the Egyptian people. The U.S. has a little influence over the armed forces and only some financial leverage, he noted.

The United States gives Egypt about $1.7 billion in aid annually, which is critical to that country’s economy — which does not benefit from oil like others in the region — and the nation’s military, considered a top force in the Middle East. But given Egyptian concerns about foreign meddling and American qualms about Islamic extremists taking power, the future of continued U.S. aid is uncertain.

Nincic said he does not believe, like some critics, that Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood would usurp the protest movement and lead the country in a repressive, anti-democratic direction. Democracy depends on free and fair elections — but there is no telling who would get the most votes in an Egyptian election.

One has to ultimately be on the right side of history and of democracy, Nincic said at the forum, co-sponsored by the departments of History and Political Science, the programs of International Relations, Middle East-South Asia Studies and Religious Studies, and the Institute of Governmental Affairs.

El Shakry said she believes Westerners are overreacting to the Muslim Brotherhood. The group, she said, renounced violence long ago and now advocates political pluralism. Also, the group is not monolithic, with factions of young people and women breaking away from its older and more traditional base.

Around the Middle East in countries like Yemen, said Flagg Miller, assistant professor of religious studies, protesters are turning out en masse to oppose authoritarian regimes. He said he is optimistic that the right ingredients are in place for an improvement in Yemen’s fortunes.

“Yemen has a remarkable tradition of social justice,” said Miller, whose research focuses on the roles of language and poetry in contemporary Muslim reform in the Middle East, especially Yemen.

Students broaden horizons

Aisha Hameed, a first-year student from Pakistan, said the teach-in presented information that seemed more accurate and deep than what has recently been on TV.

“There were a great variety of speakers on the panel,” said Hameed, adding that she will use social media like Facebook to get more involved in the Egyptian and Middle East protest movements.

Yena Bae, a second-year student majoring in international relations and communications, attended to learn more about global events and issues.

“It’s the job of educated college students to be aware about what is going on in the world,” she said.

“After all,” Bae added, “we’re living in history as it unfolds.”

Clifton B. Parker is the associate editor of UC Davis Magazine. Susanne Rockwell, Web editor with University Communications, contributed to this report.